Former President Trump cemented his undeniable lead in the Republican presidential race with Monday's massive Iowa caucuses win, AP projects.

The big picture: After Trump's early projected victory, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis secured second place and a much-needed boost for his campaign after heavy campaigning in the state.

• AP projected Trump's victory just 30 minutes after caucusing began in Iowa.
• Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy announced Monday night that he was suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, just hours after Trump won.
• President Biden put out a call for donations after recognizing Trump as the definitive GOP frontrunner.
• "Here's the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it'll be true tomorrow," Biden said.

Editor's note: This live blog has been updated with developments.

Trump will accept results, GOP chair says

DES MOINES — Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann isn't expecting any challenges to tonight's results, including from Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

What he's saying: "I don't think he's going to question the process."

• "We are in constant contact with all the campaigns from [long-shot candidate Ryan] Binkley all the way to the Trump campaign," Kaufmann told reporters at a Bloomberg roundtable on Sunday.
• "They know exactly what we're doing and how we're doing it. We share precinct chairs, precinct reporting. I don't think there's going to be a question about process."

On the ground: Sophia also stopped by Trump HQ in Des Moines on Saturday, where Trump surrogate and former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake was greeting supporters.

• Lake was a prominent 2020 election denier, and refused to accept her own defeat in the 2022 governor's race.

Historic cold snap could affect turnout

DES MOINES — Temperatures in central Iowa aren't expected to crack 0°F on caucus day and the National Weather Service is warning of dangerous wind chills as low as -35°F.

Why it matters: In some rural precincts, as few as 10 people can make a big difference, Axios Des Moines' Linh Ta reports.

• "Turnout is absolutely everything for all of the candidates," says Starlyn Perdue, GOP chair for Pottawattamie County, on the western side of the state. "You can't just have one person show up, you want to have multiple people show up and spread the message for that candidate."

State of play: Around two-feet of snow fell in the past week. Now Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be the two coldest days of the Arctic outbreak that has descended on the Midwest.

• Roads in the Des Moines metro area are mostly drivable — snow plows have had two days to do their magic — but compact snow and some ice are still causing occasional skidding, Axios' Sophia Cai notes.

What they're saying: Polk County GOP Chair Gloria Mazza still expects a "really decent turnout" in her area, which is home to Des Moines, but thinks turnout statewide could be impacted — for example among older voters in rural areas.

• Local Democratic political consultant Jeff Link told Axios the frigid temperatures could dampen turnout among Trump supporters who assume he's already ahead.

Haley, DeSantis focus final pitches on the suburbs

ANKENY, Iowa — Haley and DeSantis are spending the final hours before the caucuses begin in the snowy I-80 and I-35 corridors, courting suburban voters who want an alternative to Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai and Linh Ta report.

Why it matters: The late rush in Iowa is a snow-covered version of election battles to come across the U.S. in 2024, as both parties fight for voters in suburbs that aren't heavily Republican red or Democratic blue.

• In Iowa and beyond, suburban voters generally are more likely to be college-educated, more affluent and more likely to live in moderate battleground precincts than rural voters who, in Iowa, have largely favored Trump.

Between the lines: Haley, who is relying on more moderate Republicans, has focused on suburban counties that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) won in the 2016 caucuses.

• DeSantis is competing with Trump for rural evangelical voters and has often leaned on his wife, Casey DeSantis, and Iowa's popular Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, to make his pitch to suburban voters.

Read the full story

How the GOP candidates blanketed Iowa

To get a sense of how the GOP candidates are trying to succeed in Iowa, take a look at where they're campaigning, Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson report.

• Trump, with a big lead in the polls, has stuck mostly with big rallies in urban centers and help from surrogates.
• DeSantis is hitting farm country hard and appears to be following the playbook Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) used in winning the Iowa caucuses in 2016.
• Haley has emphasized campaign stops in Iowa's voter-dense suburbs.
• Vivek Ramaswamy has been the most active candidate in Iowa, holding as many as 10 events a day. Like DeSantis, Ramaswamy says he's campaigned in every Iowa county.

Go deeper

Trump takes aim at Haley

Trump is focusing on Haley in the final hours before the caucuses begin, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

Driving the news: "Nikki Haley can never win in the General Election because she doesn't have MAGA, and never will!" Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday afternoon.

• "Remember, I think MAGA is almost ALL of the Republican Party," he wrote.
• Trump said that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis "at least, is MAGA-Lite."

In a statement later Monday, Haley national spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas hit back: "Donald Trump knows Nikki Haley is a strong conservative who he praises repeatedly for her toughness at the United Nations.

• "Now that Nikki is surging and Trump is dropping, his campaign is flinging phony, contradictory attacks. Don't believe the fake news from Trump world – they don't believe it themselves."

Zoom in: The final poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers out this weekend showed Trump with 48% of support, Haley with 20% and DeSantis with 16%.

Roads mostly clear, temps brutally cold

The good news for caucusgoers is that most major roads and highways across Iowa are reportedly drivable.

• The bad news is that even 10 minutes outside in the current conditions could pose a risk of frostbite, according to the National Weather Service's latest warning.

On the ground: In Reasnor, Iowa (pop. 155), Axios' Sophia Cai spoke with Jamie Hofer, 31, who was in his driveway working on a car that wouldn't start up due to the cold.

• He and his wife have a second car they can take to their caucus location tonight if need be.
• Hofer is not sure for whom he'll caucus but plans to listen to the speeches to see who is best on his top issue: guns.
• Asked about Trump, Hofer said: "I don't like him personally, but I think he did good stuff."

DeSantis backers set sky-high expectations

Two of DeSantis' top backers in Iowa say he has a chance to not just do well today, but to win, Axios' Justin Green notes.

Why it matters: DeSantis has staked his campaign on the Hawkeye State, but he's consistently trailed Trump by 20+ percentage points in Iowa polls.

• "I know Ron DeSantis is going to win the Iowa caucus," Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds told voters on Friday.
• Evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats told CNN that DeSantis could come in a "very strong second" or even "knock on the door of winning this thing."

How the polls are looking in Iowa

The final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of the cycle suggests Haley could edge out DeSantis for second place, Axios' Justin Green reports:

• Trump: 48%
• Haley: 20%
• DeSantis: 16%
• Ramaswamy: 8%

Between the lines: Finishing behind Haley would be a big blow for DeSantis, who is betting big on Iowa and had until recently been running a clear second to Trump in the state.

• But pollster J. Ann Selzer warns that Haley's support looks softer than the topline, with the lowest number of "extremely enthusiastic" supporters.

Iowa's relevance in question as Dems bypass caucus

For 50 years, the Iowa caucuses have been skyrocketing lesser-known candidates to a national foothold.

• Now, there are strong signals that the state's first-in-the-nation process has been forever diluted, Axios' Jason Clayworth reports from Des Moines.

Driving the news: For the first time in decades, the caucuses are happening without Democratic participation.

• The Democratic National Committee removed Iowa from its early contests last year at President Biden's request, amid criticism about the diversity of the electorate and after technical glitches in 2020 meant it took weeks for Pete Buttigieg to be declared the winner.
• Once a battleground state in general elections, Iowa is growing redder.
• There's also less drama than usual on the Republican side, with Trump leading by a big margin.

The bottom line: This year's caucuses remain nationally relevant for one reason: the order in which the non-Trump GOP candidates place behind the former president.

J.B. Pritzker: Biden "ready" for any of the GOP candidates

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) spoke Monday in Des Moines on behalf of the Biden campaign, saying that the president is "ready" to take on any of the GOP candidates, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

Driving the news: "Tonight's contest is simply a question of whether you like your MAGA-Trump agenda wrapped in the original packaging, or with high heels or with lifts in their boots," Pritzker said, referencing Haley and DeSantis.

• "All I can say is that this campaign is ready, willing and able to take on any of those MAGA Republican candidates," he also said.

Zoom in: Pritzker, a member of Biden's re-election National Advisory Board, was joined at the news conference by Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D), who zeroed in on abortion.

• "Every one of these extremist candidates is attacking women's freedom to make their own decisions about abortion," she said.

Trump lays low hours before caucus sites open

Trump continued his pattern Monday of far fewer in-person events than his competitors, Axios' Emma Hurt reports.

Between the lines: Trump had no scheduled public events as of Monday afternoon, while Haley and Ron DeSantis made multiple stops around the state.

• Trump spent the morning calling his caucus captains, CNN reported, and predicted a "tremendous night" while briefly addressing reporters outside his Des Moines hotel.

By the numbers: Between January 1, 2023 and January 4, 2024 Trump held just 24 events in Iowa, to Haley's 51 and DeSantis' 99.

• He spent much of the final week before the caucuses in court, by choice.

Donald Trump Jr. makes final pitch for Trump

ANKENY, Iowa — Donald Trump Jr. warned voters Monday not to be dissuaded by his father's large polling lead, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

• "They're trying desperately to suppress the vote by saying you have it in the bag," he said in an event at a restaurant.

What he's saying: "Nikki Haley, she never met a war she didn't want to be in," Trump Jr. told the crowd earlier.

• On DeSantis: "Who here thinks it's acceptable for men to be wearing high heels while running for the Republican nomination for the President of the United States?" (It's been speculated that the Florida governor wears height boosters.)

He also left the door open for a 2028 presidential run, after being asked about his ambitions by audience member

• "I'm not going to say no, because if you do, they say 'liar!'"

Caucuses are coldest on record: NWS

Monday was set to be the coldest caucus day in Iowa's history, per National Weather Service Des Moines.

• Our thought bubble: Axios' Alex Thompson has pointed out that the extreme weather could hurt Trump because many of his supporters are in rural areas, where it'll be harder to travel to caucus sites.

Zoom in: Rich Roorda, who is temporary chair of the Newton, IA caucus, got the gravel road outside his house south of Prarie City clear of snow with just two hours to spare, Axios' Sophia Cai reported earlier from Prairie City.

• He had been concerned he might not make it into town to run the caucus.
• Roorda was originally expecting a bigger turn out this year than in 2016, when over 200 people came to his caucus location in Jasper County. But he said he'd be happy if 150 people showed up.

Iowa is about to get a break from the TV ad war

Iowa residents have been absolutely bombarded with ads ahead of the 2024 caucuses, Axios' Sara Fischer reported on Monday.

The big picture: More than $124 million was spent on video and TV advertising in Iowa.

• In the past two weeks, the biggest spends came from ads supporting Haley, then DeSantis, then Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Yes, but: While ad spending can help build name recognition, Iowa caucusgoers have come to expect in-person courtship above all else.

• "History has shown that ads do not win caucuses," said Tim Lim, president of Lim Consulting and a Democratic consultant.

Precinct captain sees voter enthusiasm despite "frozen nostril cold"

Volunteers at sites across Iowa were registering voters and preparing for the expected crowds less than an hour before caucuses began, Axios Des Moines' Linh Ta reports.

Driving the news: At Franklin Jr. High Event Center in Des Moines, caucus site leader Will Rogers said he had initially expected 2,000 voters and record turnout but has lowered his expectations to 1,500 because of the frigid weather.

Yes, but: Damian Thompson, a precinct captain at Franklin, said he'd already signed people in who were enthusiastic about participating, even with the temperature.

• "It's frozen nostril cold," he said.

Between the lines: Rogers emphasized that voters must be in the building by 7:01pm CT to vote, which is the standard across caucus sites.

• "We can't be here all night. We need a cutoff time."
• They'll tally votes and expect to finish counting by 7:30.

Of note: There are more than 1,600 Republican caucus sites in Iowa this year, per NPR.

How often Iowa caucus winners became presidential nominees or presidents

The Iowa caucuses have a spotty recent track record on forecasting future presidents or nominees, despite captivating the nation at the top of an election year, Axios' April Rubin reports.

• Results in Iowa ultimately help with "winnowing out candidates," Karen Kedrowski, a politics professor at Iowa State University, told Axios.

State of play: These results can sometimes impact the trajectory of a candidate's race, but other times have a more limited effect.

• In the past five elections, Democratic winners in Iowa have been more likely to be the party's eventual presidential nominee than the Republican Iowa winners.

Go deeper: Who won the last 20 years of Iowa caucuses

Dispatch: Ramaswamy greets voters

DeSantis visits caucus sites in Dubuque, Iowa

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis chose Dubuque, Iowa as the site for two sets of remarks on Monday evening, Axios' Erin Doherty and Sophia Cai report.

Why it matters: Dubuque County, located in northeast Iowa on the Mississippi River, is one of a number of counties in the Hawkeye State that could be an early indicator of results, CNN notes.

Zoom in: Dubuque was once a Democratic stronghold before Trump won the county in 2016, per the Des Moines Register.

• Trump was the first Republican candidate to win Dubuque in a presidential contest since Dwight Eisenhower's re-election in 1956.

Photos: Iowa voters show up

Axios local and national reporters sent photos from various caucus sites across Iowa, where voters showed up for the most competitive GOP presidential candidates.

• Here's our roundup.

DeSantis campaign blasts media after Trump projected win

DeSantis campaign official Andrew Romeo accused media organizations of "election interference" after calling the race "before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote."

• Even after AP projected Trump would win, votes were still being cast at caucus sites, Axios Des Moines' Linh Ta reports.

Team Trump praises win

"The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President. It's now time to make him the next President of the United States," Alex Pfeiffer, communications director of Make America Great Again Inc., said in a statement after Trump's win.

• "It's time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources," Pfeiffer continued.

Haley targets anti-"chaos" voters

Haley told caucusgoers in Des Moines, Iowa on Monday before Trump's projected win that "you don't defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos," Axios' Linh Ta reports.

• Haley also told the crowd they should support her if they want to help the country.

Zoom out: A Wall Street Journal poll from last month found that Haley beat Biden by 17 points in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

What we're watching: Where Trump looks weakest

Trump is on course for outright majorities in many Iowa counties, but there were a few pockets of the state where he looked less strong, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.

Why it matters: While the early returns are a testament to Trump's formidable strength as the Republican front-runner, they also hint at some of his vulnerabilities — in particular in the suburbs and areas with more highly educated voters.

Zoom in: Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, is one of the bluest counties in the state. With 20% of the vote in there, Haley was leading Trump 41% to 28%, per AP. By the time 89% of the vote was in, Trump was only narrowly leading Haley 37% to 34%.

• Haley is leading Trump in Story County, home to Iowa State, with just 7% of the vote in.
• And while Trump is ahead of Haley in Polk County — home to Iowa's largest city, Des Moines — the margin to Haley is much slimmer there than statewide.

What to watch: If you're looking for Trump's political weaknesses, look at how things play out in the Des Moines suburbs and the counties with large universities, as political prognosticator Sabato's Crystal Ball previewed ahead of the caucuses.

Stefanik calls on GOP candidates to drop out

House GOP Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) called on GOP candidates to drop out after Trump's "massive victory at the Iowa Caucuses!"

• The New York lawmaker said other candidates "have no chance to win" and called on the party to "unify and immediately rally behind President Trump" to focus on defeating President Biden.

Why AP called Iowa for Trump in 30 minutes

The Associated Press' 8:31pm ET call for Trump came as just nine of 1,657 precincts were reporting results — or 0.54%.

• AP said the projection was based on an analysis of early returns and voter survey data from eight counties
• Those counties showed Trump with an "insurmountable lead," AP said.

Fox News, NBC News and CNN also projected a Trump win before 9pm ET.

• Go deeper.

Trump subdued in victory speech

Trump thanked the "great people of Iowa" during remarks after his projected caucus victory, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

Driving the news: "We're going to come together, we're going to drill baby drill right away, we're going to seal up the border," Trump said.

• Trump, speaking before the second-place finisher was called, said he wanted to "congratulate" former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis "for having a good time together."
• Trump also said entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy did a "hell of a job."
• "They're very smart people, very capable people," he said of his Republican presidential rivals.

Zoom in: "I really think it is time now for everybody, our country, to come together," Trump said.

DeSantis bashes media, doesn't mention Trump win

DeSantis after securing second-place in the Iowa caucuses did not acknowledge Trump's landslide win, Axios Des Moines' Linh Ta reports.

• He instead blamed the "'media" for calling the race before all ballots were counted, which got a resounding "boo" from his supporters.
• However, he claimed a victory out of Iowa saying he got one of the "tickets" out of Iowa and plans to continue his momentum moving forward.

"They threw everything and the kitchen sink at us," DeSantis told the crowd. "The media was against us."

Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), one of his biggest endorsers, said the Iowa caucuses went successfully and congratulated his performance.

Haley thanks supporters after third-place finish

Haley, after finishing third in Iowa, pointed to promising polling in other early states New Hampshire and South Carolina, where she was previously governor, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

• "Tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race," Haley said.

She noted she voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. But Haley affirmed she thinks she's best positioned to defeat President Biden.

• "Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump/Biden nightmare," she said.