Final Iowa poll suggests Haley could deal major blow to DeSantis
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has edged ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the final poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers before Monday's vote.
Why it matters: Former President Trump is expected to win by a large margin on Monday, but DeSantis is staking much of his campaign on a second place finish in Iowa.
Zoom in: Trump polled as the first choice for 48% of likely caucusgoers in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, down from 51% in December.
- Haley is at 20%, up from 16% in December.
- DeSantis is at 16%, down from 19% in December.
- Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is at 8%, up from 5% in December.
Zoom out: The last two Iowa GOP caucuses were far tighter heading into election day, as NBC election guru Steve Kornacki reminded people on Saturday.
- In 2016, Trump led Sen. Ted Cruz in the last poll ahead of the caucuses, but ended up taking second to Cruz.
- In 2012, former Sen. Rick Santorum surprised the pollsters by narrowly beating eventual nominee Mitt Romney despite being in third in the final pre-caucus poll.
Between the lines: Trump (49%) and DeSantis (23%) scored far better than Haley (9%) when it came to having "extremely enthusiastic" supporters.
- "The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night," said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll.
The bottom line: The biggest x-factor in Iowa could be the weather.
- The forecast HIGH in Des Moines on Monday is currently -1°.
Methodology: "The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points."