Leading conservatives in the House are publicly projecting pessimism about their prospects of securing policy wins or spending cuts in upcoming fights over annual government spending bills.

Why it matters: It's a rare and telling bit of expectation-setting as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) prepares to try to ram through another compromise with Senate Democrats.

• Hardliners feel particularly burned after the bipartisan passage of a major defense bill that excluded their many of their efforts to scale back military diversity programs and affirmative action, restrict access to abortion and gender-affirming care and rein in government surveillance.

What they're saying: "Past history would not indicate that we are willing to fight for good policy or reduced spending," Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chair of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, told Axios after a GOP leadership meeting.

• Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said, "I don't have a lot of confidence we have a lot of leverage" given Democratic control both the Senate and the White House.
• "I think that you're going to see us just try to get the appropriations bills passed," Hern said. "With only a one or two vote margin, it's going to have to be very bipartisan, which means you're not going to get the policy riders that conservatives want."
• "I am not optimistic based on what they just negotiated on the national defense bill," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in a radio interview on Tuesday.

State of play: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) struck an agreement over the weekend to keep total government spending this year at the levels set out in last year's bipartisan debt ceiling deal.

• That has conservatives up in arms: "House Republicans cannot surrender like this and need to fight harder," said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) in a post on X.
• Some took aim at Johnson for casting it as a $1.59 trillion deal, noting that side agreements former Speaker Kevin McCarthy made with President Biden bring the topline number closer to $1.66 trillion.

What we're watching: After McCarthy struck one too many bipartisan deals, hardliners triggered a vote to remove him as speaker. Now, faint signals are starting to emerge that Johnson may find himself in a similar position.

• "If they totally botch [the appropriations bills] – we get no policy reforms and we're spending at $1.66 trillion – I don't know why we would keep him as speaker," Roy said.
• "I'm leaving it on the table," he said of a vote to oust Johnson. "I'm not going to say I'm going to go file it tomorrow ... I think the speaker needs to know that we're angry about it."

What's next: Lawmakers have until Jan. 19 to pass the first four of the twelve appropriations bills, and until Feb. 2 to pass the other eight.

• That's a heavy lift, with Senate Republicans already predicting Congress will need to pass a short-term spending bill to keep the government funded past Jan. 19.
• A short-term bill was discussed in the GOP leadership meeting, Hern said, but Johnson "did not indicate" he has dropped his opposition to such a move.
• Asked by reporters about a possible short-term spending bill, Johnson said simply that the House has to put the "pedal to the metal" on appropriations bills.