Watermelon farmers in Florida consider multiple uncertain risk factors when deciding when to transplant watermelon in a field. Early planting (late February or early March) is associated with higher risk of freeze damage and higher incidence of fusarium wilt disease, but typically finds more favorable markets. Late planting (late March or early April) can decrease the chances of freeze damage and diseases to the watermelons but results in later harvest, which brings lower prices and higher risk of losing market access.