With climate change, avalanches are migrating upslope
Published Date: 12/10/2021
Source: phys.org
We now know that the effects of climate change are particularly strong in mountain areas. The substantial impacts on the cryosphere (snow, ice and permafrost) have been well described where changes in glaciers and snow cover are concerned, but our knowledge of how avalanche activity responds to rising temperatures is still incomplete. This is partly because we lack sufficiently long snow-avalanche time series and partly because existing statistical techniques have not been sophisticated enough to take account of the many inherent biases in the few series we do have. The problem has recently featured in the IPCC's special report on the ocean and the cryosphere, in particular, which includes a chapter dealing specifically with high mountain areas. Given the danger that avalanches represent for both people and infrastructure (buildings, transport and communication networks, etc.), the research team has conducted a study of the history of avalanche activity in the Vosges Mountains from the end of the eighteenth century to 2013. Their approach was both innovative and multidisciplinary, combining the analysis of historical materials (not only written archives and images but also oral testimonies), statistical modeling and climate science.