With Thanksgiving a week away, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged Americans to skip holiday travel this year. The recommendation released Thursday by the CDC was a break from earlier messaging in which U.S. officials have largely declined to issue firm guidance for holiday gatherings, leaving it to American families to decide for themselves whether to risk infection at large dinners with the coronavirus pandemic still raging. The agency's website suggests that virtual Thanksgivings pose the lowest risk, and that outdoor gatherings, smaller gatherings and shorter gatherings all help to reduce risk of viral transmission. “The safest way to celebrate Thanksgiving this year is at home with the people in your household,” said Erin Sauber-Schatz, who leads the CDC’s Community Intervention and Critical Population Task Force, at a briefing with reporters. The agency now projects a grim increase in deaths due to the virus over the next four weeks, with 7,300 to 16,000 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 12, 2020. Thanksgiving holds a unique place in the collective American psyche: The one national holiday when everyone traditionally takes a breather and gets together with family. But convincing 300 million people to break with that ritual is proving to be a hard sell, especially with disparate messages from the nation's leaders. The Trump administration has sent mixed signals. The White House announced Tuesday that President Donald Trump would remain in Washington for Thanksgiving, instead of traveling to his Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago, his usual holiday destination. But officials didn't say why he changed his plans. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Wednesday urged Americans to dine only with their immediate household — a warning that Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have not given. “Gathering indoors with people who aren’t members of your household is a high-risk activity for spreading the virus,” Azar said, after previously stopping short of such a warning. That cationary tone, though, comes after many Americans have already made their plans and are on the verge of traveling. Entering the U.S. holiday season, the nation is experiencing its worst surge of the virus yet. Cases are spiking nationally to record levels. The U.S. recorded 148,000 new cases on Tuesday after hitting a record daily total of 190,000 on Nov. 13. U.S. deaths from the coronavirus have surpassed 250,000, including 1,425 on Tuesday. Hospitalizations are at a record level. Those numbers are likely to get worse. The virus spreads easily indoors, particularly when people are eating, talking, not wearing masks and sitting closely together. And contact tracing efforts are increasingly finding clusters of infections linked to small, private social gatherings, as opposed to the super-spreader events of earlier in the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated their guidance on Thursday, suggesting that Americans limit in-person contact and not travel. “CDC is recommending against travel during the Thanksgiving period,” said Henry Walke, CDC's COVID-19 Incident Manager. The website currently suggests that virtual Thanksgivings pose the lowest risk, and that outdoor gatherings, smaller gatherings and shorter gatherings all help to reduce risk of viral transmission. Even Anthony Fauci, the influential director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has taken pains to avoid telling people what they should do, though he’s clearly signaled the smart move is staying confined to one’s social bubble. “Each individual family unit needs to make a risk-benefit assessment for what they want to do for the holidays,” Fauci said this week at a New York Times Dealbook conference. “My own family, my daughters, who are adult professional women, as difficult as it is, have made their decision that they want to protect their daddy.” Fauci has said he and his wife will dine alone at home on Thanksgiving. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/2TwO8Gm Bloomberg Quicktake brings you live global news and original shows spanning business, technology, politics and culture. Make sense of the stories changing your business and your world. To watch complete coverage on Bloomberg Quicktake 24/7, visit http://www.bloomberg.com/qt/live, or watch on Apple TV, Roku, Samsung Smart TV, Fire TV and Android TV on the Bloomberg app. Connect with us on… YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg Breaking News on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BloombergQuickTakeNews Twitter: https://twitter.com/quicktake Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/quicktake Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/quicktake